Expected Returns
What returns can I expect?
Historical performance varies by risk profile. Based on pre-launch testing (January 2024 – February 2026):
| Profile | Total Return | Monthly Average | Max Drawdown |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low Risk | ~282% | ~10.84% | ~16.76% |
| Medium Risk | ~557% | ~21.42% | ~22.89% |
| High Risk | ~995% | ~31.26% | ~30.51% |
Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Why is the win rate only ~44% yet the strategy is profitable?
Because winning trades are approximately 1.6 times larger than losing trades on average. This is normal for breakout/trend-following strategies: you lose small and often, but win big when the trend runs.
The profitability score (profit factor) is approximately 1.31–1.32, meaning consecutive losing trades and therefore drawdowns are common. This results in long-term steady progression mixed with periods of stagnation.
Has the strategy ever had a losing month?
Yes. There have been several negative months during testing and also live months of negativity. No strategy wins every month when trading Bitcoin.
Is the performance curve smooth?
Returns are relatively steady for a BTC strategy, but there are ups and downs. The strike rate is around 44%, meaning that approximately just over half of trades will be small losses before a larger win occurs.
Understanding Drawdown
What is drawdown?
Drawdown is the peak-to-trough decline in account value before a new peak is reached. For example, a 20% drawdown means the account temporarily fell 20% from its highest point.
Is drawdown common with BTC Breakout?
Yes. Bitcoin is extremely volatile. Large single-day drawdowns have occurred multiple times and are to be expected.
Periods of drawdown on BTC Breakout usually occur in a slow and linear manner, where it would take days or weeks to reach maximum drawdown levels, not sudden overnight losses.
How We Track Results
How is performance tracked?
All performance is published on our Results page using independent third-party tracking via Myfxbook. This provides transparent, verifiable performance data.
What is Myfxbook and is it credible?
Myfxbook is an independent third-party tracking platform. When connected via investor (read-only) password, it verifies real trading results. All our live tracks are Myfxbook-verified, no Photoshop, no demo accounts, no fake balances.
Can I put my trading account on Myfxbook?
Absolutely, and we encourage it. It’s free and gives you full transparency and insight into how your account is performing.
Do you publish the full track record?
Yes. Every live account is linked on Myfxbook with an investor password. You can see the equity curve, trades, drawdowns, and monthly returns going back months.
Our live Myfxbook-verified accounts:
- Low Risk: https://www.myfxbook.com/members/BTCBreakout/btc-breakout-low-risk/11954415
- Medium Risk: https://www.myfxbook.com/members/BTCBreakout/btc-breakout-medium-risk/11932715
- High Risk: https://www.myfxbook.com/members/BTCBreakout/btc-breakout-high-risk/11933681
How Has BTC Breakout Been Tested?
BTC Breakout uses multiple testing methodologies:
- Historical data testing — 100% modelling quality between live and modelled results proving previous consistency
- Multiple version testing — Different versions run alongside each other to test gain, drawdown, slippage, stagnation, and various other important parameters
- Forward testing — Live accounts running since 16 February 2026
- Myfxbook verification — All real-money tracks independently verified via Myfxbook
However, past performance is no guarantee of future results.