Performance and results

Topics

• Understanding drawdown

• How we track results

• How has BTC Breakout been tested?

Expected returns

What returns can I expect?

Historical performance varies by risk profile.

Based on pre-launch testing (January 2024 – February 2026):

Profile	Total Return	Monthly Average	Max Drawdown
Low Risk	~282%	~10.84%	~16.76%
Medium Risk	~557%	~21.42%	~22.89%
High Risk	~995%	~31.26%	~30.51%

Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Why is the win rate only ~44% yet the strategy is profitable?

Because winning trades are approximately 1.6 times larger than losing trades on average. This is normal for breakout/trend-following strategies: you lose small and often, but win big when the trend runs.

The profitability score (profit factor) is approximately 1.31, meaning consecutive losing trades and therefore drawdowns are common. This results in long-term steady progression mixed with periods of stagnation.

Has the strategy ever had a losing month?

Yes. There have been several negative months during testing and also live months of negativity. No strategy wins every month when trading Bitcoin.

Is the performance curve smooth?

Returns are relatively steady for a BTC strategy, but there are ups and downs. The strike rate is around 44%, meaning that approximately just over half of trades will be small losses before a larger (breakout) win occurs.